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The bond market is now sending a clear signal: Go with a variable-rate mortgage

The bond market is now sending a clear signal: Go with a variable-rate mortgage. Many people started out Wednesday morning expecting three or more rate hikes in the next 18 months. Now, they’re wondering if we’ll see more than one. That’s how much rate expectations have changed since the Bank of Canada’s latest rate statement. If you’re shopping for a mortgage and believe what the bond market is telling us, it implies your odds of success with a fixed rate may have just changed. WATCH THE BOC’S ACTIONS, NOT ITS LIPS The Bank of Canada still maintains that its key bank rate is headed toward its estimated “neutral range,” which means 75 to 175 basis points higher than today’s 1.75 per cent (75 basis points equals three-quarters of a percentage point). But the bond market, which bakes in virtually all available information, is losing faith in the bank’s words. The …
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